As Texas Lt. Governor David Dewhurst formally enters the race to replace the retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, a tea party favorite, promises to make a race an old fashion establishment vs. conservative brawl.
Cruz, who in many ways represents another Hispanic conservative in Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has racked up a number of important endorsements. These include Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah. Freedomworks and the Club for Growth have also endorsed Cruz.
A third candidate, former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, has enough personal wealth to create an impact in the 2012 Senate race. Another possible entrant is Texas Senator and radio magnate Dan Patrick. Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, who had considered a run for the Senate, is instead running for a House seat. Dewhurst and Cruz are considered the main candidates, barring an unexpected surge from the other entrants into the race.
There is little daylight between Cruz and Dewhurst involving most national issues. Cruz is a small government, strong on defense, pro Second Amendment, anti-illegal immigration, pro-domestic energy, anti-same sex marriage conservative. The race will largely revolve around nuance and style. The advantage in 2012 may well be Cruz's. Too much experience, even in Austin rather than in Washington, is considered a little too tainted, even for the best of conservatives. Just as 2010 was, the 2012 will likely be "the year of the outsider."
Another concern for many observing the upcoming Texas U.S. senate race is the problem of the rising population of Hispanics in America and the desirability of Republicans to capture as much of that vote as possible. Having high profile Hispanics in public office, such as Rubio (who has not endorsed Cruz or anyone else) in Florida and perhaps Cruz in Texas, might go a long way toward achieving that goal.
Incidentally, Cruz has been endorsed by George P. Bush, the son of Jeb Bush and, on his mother's side, Hispanic. Bush may well represent the emerging Republican Party in Texas in a microcosm, both well to do, with a linage that includes two presidents and two governors, and being a minority.
The winner of the 2012 primaries, even if they turn nasty and result in a runoff, will likely be the next U.S. Senator from Texas. The Democratic Party, once the dominant political force in Texas as it was throughout the states of the Old Confederacy, is all but moribund in the Lone Star State. That will especially be true in 2012, with an unpopular president at the top of the ticket.
Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.
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